RON's read on Lumina's metrics
Across the ARR cube · Day 23 of 60
Strong retention headline, but expansion is masking churn — the metric to underwrite carefully.
- NRR 117% is best-in-class — but 23 pts of expansion are covering a 6% logo-churn rate that’s drifting up.
- GRR-with-downsell is 89%. The gap to NRR is the story: durable growth depends on slowing churn, not just expanding.
- Gross margin 71%, CAC payback 19 mo. Services-heavy mix and lengthening payback temper the efficiency picture.
ARR Cube
Bridge · movement · retention — the three views of subscription revenue
ARR Bridge
$8.4M
▲ +$580K QTD
MRR Movement
$700K
▲ Net + this mo
Retention Bridges
Trailing 12 months · same axis scale for comparison
Gross Retention · Churn only
94%
100% − 6% churn
Gross Retention · Churn + downsell
89%
100% − 5% downsell − 6% churn
Net Retention
117%
100% + 23% exp − 5% down − 6% churn
KPIs
IC-grade metrics · ask RON on the right for any drill-down
ARR
$8.40M
▲ +7.4% QTD
Net Retention
117%
▲ +1pp
Gross Retention
94%
▼ −1pp
New ARR · QTD
$420K
▲ +12% MoM
CAC Payback
14 mo
▼ +2mo
LTV : CAC
4.2×
— flat
Magic Number
0.78
▼ −0.04
Burn Multiple
1.2×
▲ improving
Pipeline Coverage
2.8×
▼ −0.4×
Win Rate
38%
▼ −3pp
ACV
$72K
▲ +8%
Quick Ratio
5.1
▲ +0.3